Dan Smith: “PEACEFUL SETTLEMENT FOR NAGORNY KARABAKH: NECESSARY AND POSSIBLE”

The effects of the unresolved conflicts from the late 1980s and early 1990s in the South Caucasus have held the region back from fulfilling its economic and human potential. While the conflicts over Nagorny Karabakh and over South Ossetia and Abkhazia have passed out of their most violent phases, they have not been resolved. So far, no mutually acceptable settlement has been achieved, and although there have often been high hopes of settlement, the hard truth is that the basic positions of the opposing sides have never been close enough for agreement to be likely. Despite their efforts, neither the national political leaders nor the international community have managed to create the possibility of breaking the stalemates, or of finding a bridge between the incompatible positions of the parties involved in each conflict. The issues are serious and the differences are profound, so this lack of success is not necessarily surprising. However, the inability to resolve the conflicts is imposing serious costs on the people and governments of the region.
Only in Azerbaijan, as a result of oil, do economic prospects seem moderately good, but even so the unresolved conflict over Nagorny Karabakh is a severe hindrance for economic development for Azerbaijan, as it also for Armenia, and as the Abkhazia and South Ossetia conflicts are for Georgia. In addition, there is a regional dimension. Development prospects in Georgia are also weakened by the continuing conflict over Nagorny Karabakh, and prospects in Armenia and Azerbaijan are likewise negatively affected by the Abkhazia and South Ossetia conflicts. All of these conflicts are both national issues and regional issues, and have negative human and economic impacts at both national and regional levels. One and a half decades after the end of the USSR, it is time for a decisive move to resolve the situation. From an external perspective, at least, there appears to be only one productive and positive way to approach the issue. Продолжение...
Journal of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Azerbaijan
http://mfa.gov.az/eng/images/stories/jurnal/18-19.pdf