LARGE EXPECTATIONS AND SMALL PROGRESS
The meeting of Armenia's, Azerbaijan's and Russia's presidents, initiative of Moscow, took place on January 25. The presidents discussed the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. It was the first meeting this year and the eighth meeting of the presidents of the two conflicting countries since the moment of real activation of negotiation process in autumn 2008. It is noteworthy that contrary to previous ineffectual bilateral meetings realized under the aegis of the OSCE Minsk Group, periodically initiated by Moscow, triple format of elections seems more "productive." It seems that in accordance with mutual agreement of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, Moscow is attached the role of "main initiator" at the negotiation process for settlement the Karabakh conflict. For the first time over the negotiation process three presidents signed a famous "Moscow declaration." Second triple meeting took place in July 2009 in Moscow, which was immediately followed by the joint statement of the leaders of the countries-co-chairs USA, Russia and France on the settlement of the Karabakh conflict at the summit of Great Eight. The present third meeting of three presidents which took place in Sochi on December 25 continued the strange tradition, and the meeting has very small real result.
The intrigue of Moscow's new initiative was strengthened by thorough preparation to the talks in Sochi, and special diplomatic activity in this direction. Prior to the meeting Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Yerevan, and then Armenia's President Serge Sargsian
and the head of self-proclaimed Nagorno Karabakh republic Bako Saakian visited Moscow. Then the head of Russia's President Administration Sergey Narishkin visited Baku. On the same days another "main navigator" of the process of normalization of relations in the South Caucasus, Turkey's Prime Minister Erdogan discussed with Russia's president and the head of Russian government the ways of settlement of all conflicts in the region, including the Karabakh conflict.
Special interest to the meeting in Sochi was explained by "ratification pause" in the development of Turkish-Armenian dialogue requiring real steps in the parallel process of settlement the Karabakh conflict. The events show that these parallel processes are developing according to the principle of "communicating vessels", and give impulse to each other.
After the visit of Turkey's President A.Ghul to Yerevan in September 2008, and after the start given to the "football diplomacy" some revival in the negotiation process for settlement the Karabakh conflict was observed (the adoption of Moscow declaration.) Later, after next phase of activation the Turkish-Armenian dialogue (agreement of the Road Map in April) again the problem of settlement the Karabakh conflict was launched (a number of meetings between Armenia's and Azerbaijan's presidents, joint statement of the heads of co-chair countries.)
After signing of protocols in Zurich the expected "ratification pause" began, and again the settlement of the Karabakh conflict was discussed.
The development of events shows that it is not easy to obtain parallelism, synchronism, and agreement in these two complicated and formally independent processes. All these parallel processes, due to a number of objective and subjective reasons develop with various speeds and have various degree of result. Some progress is observed in the Turkish-Armenian dialogue thank to active interest of both states' leadership, and support of the world leading countries; there is significant progress in ratification of protocols. However, despite intensive talks on settlement the Karabakh conflict and often meetings of Armenia's and Azerbaijan's presidents, there is not notable progress. Therefore, special hopes were relied on the meeting in Sochi.
The notable point of the meeting in Sochi became the statement made by Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that the sides managed to agree preamble of the Madrid document: "There is common understanding on preamble of the document." Concerning other provisions Lavrov said that "the sides will prepare concrete ideas on arguable parts of documents, and they will be included the text." In the end Lavrov said that the talks "have changed from the abstract form into concrete, and all proposals developed in the frames of the OSCE Minsk Group have been discussed thoroughly at the meeting. "
In the whole, the Sochi round of talks had certain result, but did not approve expectation: there was not real break in the process of settlement the Karabakh conflict. It is clear that such microscopic results can hardly satisfy Azerbaijan's and Turkey's expectations. But there is some ground for careful optimism, because new meetings of the presidents will take place, at which they will touch principal parts of Madrid document.
"TURAN ANALYTICAL SERVICE"
The intrigue of Moscow's new initiative was strengthened by thorough preparation to the talks in Sochi, and special diplomatic activity in this direction. Prior to the meeting Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Yerevan, and then Armenia's President Serge Sargsian
and the head of self-proclaimed Nagorno Karabakh republic Bako Saakian visited Moscow. Then the head of Russia's President Administration Sergey Narishkin visited Baku. On the same days another "main navigator" of the process of normalization of relations in the South Caucasus, Turkey's Prime Minister Erdogan discussed with Russia's president and the head of Russian government the ways of settlement of all conflicts in the region, including the Karabakh conflict.
Special interest to the meeting in Sochi was explained by "ratification pause" in the development of Turkish-Armenian dialogue requiring real steps in the parallel process of settlement the Karabakh conflict. The events show that these parallel processes are developing according to the principle of "communicating vessels", and give impulse to each other.
After the visit of Turkey's President A.Ghul to Yerevan in September 2008, and after the start given to the "football diplomacy" some revival in the negotiation process for settlement the Karabakh conflict was observed (the adoption of Moscow declaration.) Later, after next phase of activation the Turkish-Armenian dialogue (agreement of the Road Map in April) again the problem of settlement the Karabakh conflict was launched (a number of meetings between Armenia's and Azerbaijan's presidents, joint statement of the heads of co-chair countries.)
After signing of protocols in Zurich the expected "ratification pause" began, and again the settlement of the Karabakh conflict was discussed.
The development of events shows that it is not easy to obtain parallelism, synchronism, and agreement in these two complicated and formally independent processes. All these parallel processes, due to a number of objective and subjective reasons develop with various speeds and have various degree of result. Some progress is observed in the Turkish-Armenian dialogue thank to active interest of both states' leadership, and support of the world leading countries; there is significant progress in ratification of protocols. However, despite intensive talks on settlement the Karabakh conflict and often meetings of Armenia's and Azerbaijan's presidents, there is not notable progress. Therefore, special hopes were relied on the meeting in Sochi.
The notable point of the meeting in Sochi became the statement made by Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov that the sides managed to agree preamble of the Madrid document: "There is common understanding on preamble of the document." Concerning other provisions Lavrov said that "the sides will prepare concrete ideas on arguable parts of documents, and they will be included the text." In the end Lavrov said that the talks "have changed from the abstract form into concrete, and all proposals developed in the frames of the OSCE Minsk Group have been discussed thoroughly at the meeting. "
In the whole, the Sochi round of talks had certain result, but did not approve expectation: there was not real break in the process of settlement the Karabakh conflict. It is clear that such microscopic results can hardly satisfy Azerbaijan's and Turkey's expectations. But there is some ground for careful optimism, because new meetings of the presidents will take place, at which they will touch principal parts of Madrid document.
"TURAN ANALYTICAL SERVICE"
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